Canada Dodged Recession, Risks Remain in 2024

March 27, 2024 - Canada avoided a recession in the last two years but risks remain for 2024, according to the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council (BCC). 

In "So Far, So Good: C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council Declares Recession Avoided in 2022, 2023," members of the BCC examined if a recession had occurred in the past two years and found that the Canadian economy did not fulfill the conditions required to indicate a recession.

C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council (BCC) is an authoritative arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The BCC meets when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession and acts as a conduit for research aimed at developing a deeper…

C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Calls for Bank of Canada to Hold Overnight Rate at 5.00 Percent, Cut to 3.50 Percent by March of 2025

February 29, 2024 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada maintain its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 5.00 percent at its next announcement on March 6th. The MPC further recommends that the Bank keep the target at 5.00 percent in April, before reducing it to 4.50 percent by September and to 3.50 percent by March of 2025.

 

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of…

C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council Calls for Bank of Canada to Hold Overnight Rate at 5.00 Percent through March, Cut to 3.75 Percent by January of 2025

January 18, 2024 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada maintain its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 5.00 percent at its next announcement on January 24th. The MPC further recommends that the Bank keep the target at 5.00 percent in March, before reducing it to 4.50 percent by July and to 3.75 percent by January of 2025.

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s CEO, chairs the Council. Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest-rate announcement, the subsequent…

C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council to Bank of Canada: Hold Overnight Rate at 5.00 Percent until January, Cut to 4.00 Percent by End of 2024

November 30, 2023 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) recommends that the Bank of Canada maintain its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 5.00 percent at its next announcement on December 6th. The MPC further recommends that the Bank keep the target at 5.00 percent in January 2024, before reducing it to 4.75 percent by June of 2024 and to 4.00 percent by December of 2024.

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s CEO, chairs the Council. Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest-rate announcement, the…

Structuring Success: Canada's Competition Act Must Remain Effects-based

The C.D. Howe Institute Competition Policy Council (the Council) met on Friday, October 13, 2023, to debate the calls for bright-line rules and presumptions, and whether such proposals are an appropriate approach to competition law enforcement that would effectively address issues of affordability and lagging productivity in Canada.

The tabling of a Private Member’s Bill on September 18, 2023, by Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, titled Lowering Prices for Canadians ActOn September 18, 2023, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh introduced Bill C-352, a Private Member’s Bill which includes, among other amendments, proposals to introduce market-share thresholds into the merger review process of the …