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Achieving Net Zero Emissions

Real Change Needs Real Plans

Counting Carbon: A Reality Check on Our Emissions Reduction Plan

The federal government’s ambitious Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) last March set out targets for seven sectors that make up the total Canadian greenhouse gas emissions. It aims to cut 2030 emissions by 42 percent from 2019 levels. But the ERP is merely a plan to have a plan. It contains no specific steps to meet its targets, or any mechanism for measuring the progress towards such targets on a year-by-year basis.

Our Intelligence Memo Series, Counting Carbon introduces seven forecast models tailored to each sector that provide a realistic assessment of what’s needed to meet Ottawa’s goals, and each sector’s key variables to emission reductions. These will be used to predict annual emissions from each sector from 2020 to 2030.

Part I: Transportation
Part II: Oil and Gas
Part III: Buildings
Part IV: Electricity, Heavy Industry, Agriculture
and remaining economic sectors

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Sustainable Change

Industry Sector Emissions Projection vs. ERP

Industry Sector Emissions Projections vs. ERP

Net Zero: The Plan to Have a Plan with Erica Myers and Brian Livingston

When it comes to reaching “net zero” emissions by 2050, Canada has a plan – to have a plan to reduce carbon in homes and businesses. That’s according to the University of Calgary's Brian Livingston and Erica Myers in the fourth episode of the C.D. Howe Institute Podcast. Learn how we’d be better off spending a fraction of money reducing our home’s carbon footprint than buying an electric car.

Only Hot Air? The Implications of Replacing Gas and Oil in Canadian Homes

Canadian homes emit about six percent of Canada’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Federal government aims to bring down 2030 building emissions by 42 percent compared to 2019, with the entire economy producing net zero emissions by 2050.

Our modeling finds that Canada would need to retrofit over 400,000 dwellings per year to fully electrify all dwellings by 2050 and meeting 2030 targets requires even more aggressive action: over half a million retrofits would be required per year.

Even in an extreme scenario where no new emitting buildings came on the market after 2022, emissions only fall by about 26 percent to 2030, still not enough to meet government targets.

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Unfinished Business: After Budget 2023, Gaps Remain in Climate Industrial Policy

April’s federal budget took some positive steps to level the playing field with the US for clean investment.

Its initiatives are selective, concentrating on providing fiscal support for investment in clean electricity, hydrogen, and clean tech manufacturing. However, some important policy gaps and questions remain, which may constrain clean investment in specific areas.

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The Scale of Canada's Home Retrofit Challenge

Homes to Electrify

Heating, cooling and lighting Canadian buildings takes a lot of energy. In 2019, commercial and residential buildings together were responsible for 25 percent of total energy consumption, more than the entire transportation sector. While this energy keeps people comfortable and goods at the right temperature, it creates greenhouse gas emissions.

The federal government’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, published in March, aims for a 42 percent reduction in building sector emissions from 2019 levels by 2030. It’s worth unpacking this enormous challenge.

Canadians heat their homes very differently across provinces. The choice varies on climate, resource availability and cost, dwelling age and type, availability of natural gas connections, and more. So almost 70 percent of Quebec homes use electricity as their primary heat source, while 92 percent use natural gas in Alberta. Atlantic Canada depends the most on heating oil, at roughly a third of their total stock, while communities in northern Canada burn diesel.

Ontario, where gas predominates, faces the largest challenge with more than 5 million homes to electrify.