Monetary Policy - Op Eds

The last two years have not been kind to central banks. Inflation in many countries soared far beyond target, reaching levels not seen in decades. Central bankers have responded with necessary but painful interest rate hikes.

Despite disappointment in the performance of many central banks, let’s not lose sight of key lessons. First, inflation stinks, inflicting most harm on those who can afford it least. Second, central banks are the best institutions we have to make sure it goes away and doesn’t come back. As we head into 2024 and inflation continues to fall, it’s worth remembering why the world established central banks and low inflation targets in the first place.

Until the 1990s, central banks struggled…

The Bank of Canada surprised no one by holding its target for the overnight lending rate at 5 per cent on Wednesday. Last week’s releases by Statistics Canada showing a decline in third-quarter GDP and an uptick in the unemployment rate sealed the deal.

Nevertheless, the announcement made it clear that the bank is not satisfied with the pace at which inflation is falling, stressed that the fight against inflation is not yet won, and stated that they stand ready to boost rates again if inflation numbers disappoint.

It’s clear that the bank is concerned about inflation expectations becoming de-anchored from the 2-per-cent target. They continue to prioritize re-establishing any…

The Bank of Canada once again held its policy rate at 5 per cent on Wednesday, as expected.

After two months of disappointment, with the annual change in the Consumer Price Index ticking up in July and August, inflation resumed its descent in September, falling to 3.8 per cent from 4 per cent. That, plus weak economic numbers, made it practically certain – confirmed by the expectations of financial markets – that the central bank would hold.

The real questions concern the bank’s end point for monetary policy in the medium term and what that means for Canadians.

The bank is probably at the end of its tightening cycle. But this doesn’t mean interest rates are coming back down to where they were before…

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5 per cent Wednesday – a smart move.

Although the central bank’s governing council may have made its decision ahead of the weak GDP numbers released last week, those numbers underlined the reasons to hold. Real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2023 and fell 0.2 per cent month-over-month in June (annualized as well). Looking ahead, Statistics Canada’s advanced estimate for July was flat. The household consumption the bank has been battling finally seems to be flagging. Data on bank deposits and job vacancies also testify to an economy losing steam.

Monetary policy works with a lag, and these latest figures suggest…

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate to 5 per cent, a level not seen since March, 2001. Citing continuing tightness in labour markets and still-firm consumer spending, the bank reasoned there is still excess demand in Canada’s economy, and that Wednesday’s rate hike was necessary to continue to bring activity in line with productive potential. But if that adjustment is already happening, this hike may turn out to be one too many.

Among the many challenges a central bank faces in a fight against high inflation is the mixed signals it gets as it hikes rates to get inflation down. In Canada, the year-over-year headline inflation rate fell to 3.4 per cent in May. However, most of that was driven by a fall in…