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The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada's most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review.

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Business Cycle

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Business cycle research covers the timing, depth and industrial scope of upswings, peaks, downturns and troughs in the general economy. It analyses short and medium-term movements in related indicators such as unemployment, investment or consumption, as distinct from their long-term, structural evolution. 

Taking the Economic Pulse: An Improved Tool to Help Track Economic Cycles in Canada
July 26, 2016 - Jeremy Kronick
A new business cycle measurement developed by a C.D. Howe analyst provides further evidence that there was no recession in 2015, according to a new Institute report. In “Taking the Economic Pulse: An...
Mortgage Insurance as a Macroprudential Tool: Dealing with the Risk of a Housing Market Crash in Canada
July 8, 2015 - James MacGee and Thorsten V. Koeppl
Canada’s mortgage insurance risk needs a better backstop fund, according to a new report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Mortgage Insurance as a Macroprudential Tool: Dealing with the...
Securing Monetary and Financial Stability: Why Canada Needs a Macroprudential Policy Framework
June 24, 2015 - David Longworth and Paul Jenkins
The Bank of Canada should focus monetary policy on inflation, not systemic risk, according to a new report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Securing Monetary and Financial Stability:...
User Discretion Advised: Fiscal Consolidation and the Recovery
July 22, 2014 - William M. Scarth
Ontario should not delay fiscal consolidation, while Ottawa should take a more gradual approach than planned, according to a report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “User Discretion Advised: Fiscal...
The Ill Wind that Blows from Europe: Implications for Canada’s Economy
March 5, 2014 - Pierre Siklos
The continuing possibility that things could take a turn for the worse in the eurozone ought to be a concern for Canadian policymakers, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute...
Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues
September 4, 2013 - Greg Tkacz
Predicting recessions in real-time could be made possible by mining vast new sources of electronic data, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Predicting Recessions in...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.25 Percent by July 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
July 6, 2017
July 6, 2017 — In a tight vote, the C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it...
Parisa Mahboubi - Most Vulnerable Workers Will Feel The Brunt of Employment Changes
Intelligence Memos
From: Parisa Mahboubi To: The Honourable Kathleen Wynne, Premier of Ontario  Date: June 8, 2017 Re: Proposed changes to employment standards In response to changes in the workplace over the past 30...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by May 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
May 18, 2017
May 18, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) said the Bank of Canada should keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary...

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12 Oct 2017
Oct
12
  • Global Forces: Thriving in an Age of Disruption
Roundtable Luncheon with Dominic Barton, Global Managing Partner, McKinsey & Company
Calgary, 421 7 Ave SW #4000
Thursday, October 12, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
12 Jun 2017
Jun
12
  • Renegotiating NAFTA: Local Impact, National Concern
Roundtable Luncheon with Mayor Betsy Price, Mayor Michael Rawlings and Steve Verheul
Toronto, 67 Yonge Street, Suite 300
Monday, June 12, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
Dallas Fortworth International Airport
01 Jun 2017
Jun
01
  • Matt Jones, Director General, Climate Change Office, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Roundtable Luncheon on Clean Growth for Canada: Next Steps on the Pan-Canadian Framework
Calgary, 421 7 Ave SW #4000
Thursday, June 1, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
BMO
Enbridge Inc.

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© 2014 C.D. Howe Institute. All Rights Reserved.