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The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada's most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review.

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Business Cycle

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Business cycle research covers the timing, depth and industrial scope of upswings, peaks, downturns and troughs in the general economy. It analyses short and medium-term movements in related indicators such as unemployment, investment or consumption, as distinct from their long-term, structural evolution. 

Taking the Economic Pulse: An Improved Tool to Help Track Economic Cycles in Canada
July 26, 2016 - Jeremy Kronick
A new business cycle measurement developed by a C.D. Howe analyst provides further evidence that there was no recession in 2015, according to a new Institute report. In “Taking the Economic Pulse: An...
Mortgage Insurance as a Macroprudential Tool: Dealing with the Risk of a Housing Market Crash in Canada
July 8, 2015 - James MacGee and Thorsten V. Koeppl
Canada’s mortgage insurance risk needs a better backstop fund, according to a new report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Mortgage Insurance as a Macroprudential Tool: Dealing with the...
Securing Monetary and Financial Stability: Why Canada Needs a Macroprudential Policy Framework
June 24, 2015 - David Longworth and Paul Jenkins
The Bank of Canada should focus monetary policy on inflation, not systemic risk, according to a new report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Securing Monetary and Financial Stability:...
User Discretion Advised: Fiscal Consolidation and the Recovery
July 22, 2014 - William M. Scarth
Ontario should not delay fiscal consolidation, while Ottawa should take a more gradual approach than planned, according to a report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “User Discretion Advised: Fiscal...
The Ill Wind that Blows from Europe: Implications for Canada’s Economy
March 5, 2014 - Pierre Siklos
The continuing possibility that things could take a turn for the worse in the eurozone ought to be a concern for Canadian policymakers, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute...
Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues
September 4, 2013 - Greg Tkacz
Predicting recessions in real-time could be made possible by mining vast new sources of electronic data, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Predicting Recessions in...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through mid-Year; Hike to 0.75 Percent by 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
January 12, 2017
January 12, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets...
Evidence Mounts that 2015 Downturn was no Recession
Council Report
December 22, 2016
Report of the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council December 21, 2016 - It is not possible to call the first two quarters of 2015 a recession. This is the consensus view of the C.D. Howe...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent for Next Year: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
December 1, 2016
December 1, 2016 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets...

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02 May 2017
May
02
  • Bridging the Gap: Improving Mental Health Care in Canada
Roundtable Luncheon with Mary Deacon, Hon. Michael H. Wilson and Dr. Catherine Zahn
Toronto, 67 Yonge Street, Suite 300
Tuesday, May 2, 2017,
12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
Morneau Shepell
26 Apr 2017
Apr
26
Roundtable Luncheon on Clean Growth for Canada: Next Steps on the Pan-Canadian Framework
Calgary
Wednesday, April 26, 2017,
12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
Enbridge Inc.
22 Mar 2017
Mar
22
  • Defence Procurement for the 21st Century
Roundtable Luncheon with Lisa Campbell, Patrick Finn and Lisa Setlakwe
Ottawa, 1 Rideau Street
Wednesday, March 22, 2017,
12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
Canada Company

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© 2014 C.D. Howe Institute. All Rights Reserved.