Council Reports

December 17, 2020 – Despite economic recovery since April, it is too early to call the end of the recession, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council report. The Council, comprised of Canada’s preeminent economists in the field and co-chaired by Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council typically meets annually, but also when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession. The Council met on December 7 to review the case for calling April 2020 as the end of the recession based on signs of economic recovery since then. Entering and exiting a recession implies a change in the direction of economic activity, not its...

May 1, 2020 – Preliminary data suggest Canada entered a recession in the first quarter of 2020 with a February peak, says the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council. The Council, comprised of Canada’s preeminent economists in the field and co-chaired by Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council typically meets annually, but also when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuring government shutdown that put a stop to much economic activity, the Council met on April 16 to review the case for calling the beginning of a recession in the first quarter of 2020 and the dating of the...

July 4, 2019 – The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has recommended that the Bank of Canada keep its target for the overnight rate, its benchmark policy interest rate, at 1.75 percent at its next announcement on July 10, 2019, and maintain it at that level through July 2020. The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council. Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest-rate announcement, the subsequent announcement, and the announcements six months and one year ahead. The Council’s formal recommendation for each...