Published in The Globe and Mail.
When headline inflation increased to 2.9 per cent in May, up from 2.7 per cent in April, there was much speculation that the Bank of Canada would pause its rate cuts. However, it ticked back down to 2.7 per cent in June. That, plus a weakening labour market and stagnating per capita GDP, made it practically certain the bank would cut on Wednesday. It did.
Whether the bank has entered an easing cycle is no longer the question. The only question left is how far and how fast the Bank of Canada continues to cut interest rates.
There are several upside risks to inflation in the near future which could cause the bank to pause its rate cuts. We think it shouldn’t. Here’s why.
The…
Published in the Financial Post.
Canadian hospitals are capacity-constrained and expensive and therefore not the best care setting for patients who no longer need acute care and the bed that comes with it. Yet these “alternate level care” (ALC) patients accounted for 17 per cent of all acute-care bed days in Canada (excluding Quebec) in 2022-23. Reducing this unnecessary use of limited acute-care capacity could help ensure hospital beds are open for Canadians when they need them.
High ALC volume is one of the most vexing and complex health system challenges, but there are ways to address it. Relatively modest improvement could help reduce the risk of hospital bed shortages. ALC occupancy, which ranges from 14.5 to 26.1…
Originally published in the Financial Post.
Joe Biden’s appallingly weak performance in the June 27th presidential debate, together with Donald Trump’s defiant survival after Saturday’s assassination attempt, have many American pundits saying November’s election is now Trump’s to lose. If he does return to the White House, U.S. trade relations with friend and foe alike will be in for tough challenges. And nothing will be more exposed than the Canada-US-Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA). In fact, CUSMA’s survival could be at risk even without a Republican presidency, given the protectionist bias of the Democratic party.
It isn’t widely appreciated but CUSMA terminates on June 30, 2036. It continues beyond that date…
