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The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada's most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review.

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Business Cycle

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Cyclical Policies
Economic and Policy Retrospective
Economic Outlook
Federal Budgets
Financial Stability
Fiscal Sustainability
Inflation and Inflation Control
Interest Rates
Money Supply

Business cycle research covers the timing, depth and industrial scope of upswings, peaks, downturns and troughs in the general economy. It analyses short and medium-term movements in related indicators such as unemployment, investment or consumption, as distinct from their long-term, structural evolution. 

Who is Still Standing in Line? Addressing a Mismatch of Skills and Jobs in the Canadian Labour Market
Who is Still Standing in Line? Addressing a Mismatch of Skills and Jobs in the Canadian Labour Market
March 6, 2013 - Philippe Bergevin
While the Canadian labour market has shown great resilience since the last recession and is nearly back to normal, important weaknesses remain for youth and the long-term unemployed, according to a...
Turning Points: Business Cycles in Canada since 1926
October 24, 2012 - Philip Cross and Philippe Bergevin
Market-based economies tend to exhibit cyclical behaviour. The recent financial crisis, with devastating impacts that are still being felt today, has added urgency to the drive to improve our...
Housing Bubbles and the Consumer Price index: A Proposal for a Better Inflation Indicator
Housing Bubbles and the Consumer Price index: A Proposal for a Better Inflation Indicator
September 12, 2012 - Philippe Bergevin
The Bank of Canada needs a better inflation indicator that is more sensitive to swings in house prices than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In...
Core, What is it Good For? Why the Bank of Canada Should Focus on Headline Inflation
September 11, 2011 - Colin Busby and Philippe Bergevin
The Bank of Canada should place less emphasis on the “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI) in explaining its policy choices, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In, “Core,...
When Nightmares Become Real: Modelling Linkages between the Financial Sector and the Real Economy in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis
August 16, 2011 - Paul Jenkins, Philippe Bergevin and Pierre Duguay
Our understanding of the links between the financial sector and the rest of the economy needs to improve, concludes a report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In When Nightmares Become Real: Modelling...
C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council Urges Bank of Canada to Raise Overnight Rate to 1.25 Percent on July 19, 2011
C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council Urges Bank of Canada to Raise Overnight Rate to 1.25 Percent on July 19, 2011
July 14, 2011
July 14, 2011 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today recommended that the Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight interest rate, the very short-term money-market...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by April 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by April 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
April 6, 2017
April 6, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through September; Hike to 0.75 Percent by Early 2018, Says C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through September; Hike to 0.75 Percent by Early 2018, Says C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
February 23, 2017
February 23, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through mid-Year; Hike to 0.75 Percent by 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through mid-Year; Hike to 0.75 Percent by 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
January 12, 2017
January 12, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets...

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02 May 2017
May
02
Bridging the Gap: Improving Mental Health Care in Canada
  • Bridging the Gap: Improving Mental Health Care in Canada
Roundtable Luncheon with Mary Deacon, Hon. Michael H. Wilson and Dr. Catherine Zahn
Toronto, 67 Yonge Street, Suite 300
Tuesday, May 2, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
Morneau Shepell
22 Mar 2017
Mar
22
Defence Procurement for the 21st Century
  • Defence Procurement for the 21st Century
Roundtable Luncheon with Lisa Campbell, Patrick Finn and Lisa Setlakwe
Ottawa, 1 Rideau Street
Wednesday, March 22, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
Canada Company
20 Mar 2017
Mar
20
Champions en croissance : Sièges sociaux dans un Québec dynamique/Growing Champions: Head Offices in a Dynamic Quebec
  • Champions en croissance : Sièges sociaux dans un Québec dynamique/Growing Champions: Head Offices in a Dynamic Quebec
Dîner-conférence/ Roundtable Luncheon - Michel Leblanc et/and Claude Séguin
Montreal, 1145 avenue union
Monday, March 20, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm

Latest Research

User Discretion Advised: Fiscal Consolidation and the Recovery
User Discretion Advised: Fiscal Consolidation and the Recovery
July 22, 2014
The Ill Wind that Blows from Europe: Implications for Canada’s Economy
The Ill Wind that Blows from Europe: Implications for Canada’s Economy
March 5, 2014
Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues
Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues
September 4, 2013

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