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The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada's most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review.

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Business Cycle

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Business cycle research covers the timing, depth and industrial scope of upswings, peaks, downturns and troughs in the general economy. It analyses short and medium-term movements in related indicators such as unemployment, investment or consumption, as distinct from their long-term, structural evolution. 

The Ill Wind that Blows from Europe: Implications for Canada’s Economy
March 5, 2014 - Pierre Siklos
The continuing possibility that things could take a turn for the worse in the eurozone ought to be a concern for Canadian policymakers, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute...
Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues
September 4, 2013 - Greg Tkacz
Predicting recessions in real-time could be made possible by mining vast new sources of electronic data, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Predicting Recessions in...
Who is Still Standing in Line? Addressing a Mismatch of Skills and Jobs in the Canadian Labour Market
March 6, 2013 - Philippe Bergevin
While the Canadian labour market has shown great resilience since the last recession and is nearly back to normal, important weaknesses remain for youth and the long-term unemployed, according to a...
October 24, 2012 - Philip Cross and Philippe Bergevin
Market-based economies tend to exhibit cyclical behaviour. The recent financial crisis, with devastating impacts that are still being felt today, has added urgency to the drive to improve our...
Housing Bubbles and the Consumer Price index: A Proposal for a Better Inflation Indicator
September 12, 2012 - Philippe Bergevin
The Bank of Canada needs a better inflation indicator that is more sensitive to swings in house prices than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In...
September 11, 2011 - Colin Busby and Philippe Bergevin
The Bank of Canada should place less emphasis on the “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI) in explaining its policy choices, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In, “Core,...
Parisa Mahboubi - Most Vulnerable Workers Will Feel The Brunt of Employment Changes
Intelligence Memos
From: Parisa Mahboubi To: The Honourable Kathleen Wynne, Premier of Ontario  Date: June 8, 2017 Re: Proposed changes to employment standards In response to changes in the workplace over the past 30...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by May 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
May 18, 2017
May 18, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) said the Bank of Canada should keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by April 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
April 6, 2017
April 6, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for...

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12 Jun 2017
Jun
12
  • Renegotiating NAFTA: Local Impact, National Concern
Roundtable Luncheon with Mayor Betsy Price, Mayor Michael Rawlings and Steve Verheul
Toronto, 67 Yonge Street, Suite 300
Monday, June 12, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
Dallas Fortworth International Airport
01 Jun 2017
Jun
01
  • Matt Jones, Director General, Climate Change Office, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Roundtable Luncheon on Clean Growth for Canada: Next Steps on the Pan-Canadian Framework
Calgary, 421 7 Ave SW #4000
Thursday, June 1, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
BMO
Enbridge Inc.
02 May 2017
May
02
  • Bridging the Gap: Improving Mental Health Care in Canada
Roundtable Luncheon with Mary Deacon, Hon. Michael H. Wilson and Dr. Catherine Zahn
Toronto, 67 Yonge Street, Suite 300
Tuesday, May 2, 2017, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
Morneau Shepell

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© 2014 C.D. Howe Institute. All Rights Reserved.