About the C.D. Howe Institute

The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent not-for-profit research institute whose mission is to raise living standards by fostering economically sound public policies. Widely considered to be Canada's most influential think tank, the Institute is a trusted source of essential policy intelligence, distinguished by research that is nonpartisan, evidence-based and subject to definitive expert review.

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Business Cycle

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Business cycle research covers the timing, depth and industrial scope of upswings, peaks, downturns and troughs in the general economy. It analyses short and medium-term movements in related indicators such as unemployment, investment or consumption, as distinct from their long-term, structural evolution. 

The Ill Wind that Blows from Europe: Implications for Canada’s Economy
March 5, 2014 - Pierre Siklos
The continuing possibility that things could take a turn for the worse in the eurozone ought to be a concern for Canadian policymakers, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute...
Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues
September 4, 2013 - Greg Tkacz
Predicting recessions in real-time could be made possible by mining vast new sources of electronic data, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Predicting Recessions in...
Who is Still Standing in Line? Addressing a Mismatch of Skills and Jobs in the Canadian Labour Market
March 6, 2013 - Philippe Bergevin
While the Canadian labour market has shown great resilience since the last recession and is nearly back to normal, important weaknesses remain for youth and the long-term unemployed, according to a...
October 24, 2012 - Philip Cross and Philippe Bergevin
Market-based economies tend to exhibit cyclical behaviour. The recent financial crisis, with devastating impacts that are still being felt today, has added urgency to the drive to improve our...
Housing Bubbles and the Consumer Price index: A Proposal for a Better Inflation Indicator
September 12, 2012 - Philippe Bergevin
The Bank of Canada needs a better inflation indicator that is more sensitive to swings in house prices than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. In...
September 11, 2011 - Colin Busby and Philippe Bergevin
The Bank of Canada should place less emphasis on the “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI) in explaining its policy choices, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In, “Core,...
Business Cycle Council Communique – December 2017
Council Report
December 13, 2017
The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council met on Wednesday December 13 to review its assessments of Canadian business cycle dates. The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, chaired by...
Jim MacGee - Limit the Buildup of Risk, not Competition, in Mortgage Lending
Intelligence Memos
From: Jim MacGee To: Bill Morneau, Minister of Finance Date: November 10, 2017 Re: Limit the Buildup of Risk, not Competition, in Mortgage Lending Last month saw another move to limit the buildup of...
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.25 Percent by July 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
Council Report
July 6, 2017
July 6, 2017 — In a tight vote, the C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it...

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22 Feb 2018
Feb
22
  • The Election is Coming: What Should the 2018 Ontario Budget Look Like?
Roundtable Luncheon with Benjamin Dachis, Rocco Rossi and Douglas E. Turnbull
Toronto, 67 Yonge Street, Suite 300
Thursday, February 22, 2018, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
02 Feb 2018
Feb
02
  • Ian Shugart, Deputy Minister, Foreign Affairs, Global Affairs Canada
Canada’s 2018 Foreign Policy Agenda
Toronto, 67 Yonge Street, Suite 300
Friday, February 2, 2018, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
10 Jan 2018
Jan
10
  • 2018 Financial Outlook
Roundtable Luncheon with Rahim Hirji, Benjamin Tal, and Barbara Zvan
Toronto, 67 Yonge Street, Suite 300
Wednesday, January 10, 2018, 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm
Sponsored by:
CIBC

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